Research
Cross-venue pricing, implied probability, and how prices behave as an event approaches settlement.
Every price is a forecast.
Cogitate is a research lab for prediction markets. We measure how markets price uncertain events, test those prices against what happened, and build on what holds.
Buy on A, at the ask
Sell on B, at the bid
Edge after costs
No edge
Direction
Markets have always priced the future
Forecasts were drawn by hand, wired down a line, shouted across a pit. What is new is the speed, and the chance to measure forecasts properly.
1900A weather forecast, drawn by hand. 
1870sPrices become a stream of data. 
1920A price agreed by voice, in a pit. 
TodayThe same question, priced in milliseconds.
A lab, not a trading desk
We study prediction markets and event trading: how markets put a price on whether something will happen, and whether that price holds. Every claim we make is checked against market data. Three kinds of work run side by side.
Engineering
Data capture, matching and replay built to the millisecond, so a test sees the market as a trader would have.
Products
What survives testing becomes trading systems and tools. Two are in development and will be announced here.
Below the quoted price
A gap between two prices for the same event looks like an edge. Many vanish once you pay to reach them. Switch the costs on and watch.
Fees on both sides
Each venue takes its cut on entry and exit.
Latency
Prices move while an order travels. We test in 100 ms steps.
Settlement rules differ
Two venues can word the same event differently, or settle it on different sources.
Out-of-sample test
Does the gap hold on history the rule never saw?
Will the S&P 500 close higher this week?An illustrative event, priced on two markets.
0.62on market A
0.55on market B
7¢quoted gap, before costs
Holds
Each block is one cent of the quoted 7¢ gap. Figures are illustrative, not results.
Every idea gets a verdict
Ideas that fail are recorded as dead ends, not quietly dropped. That record is most of the work.
| Event | Market A | Market B | Net gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 closes higher this week | 0.62 | 0.55 | 3¢ | Holds |
| EUR/USD above 1.12 on Friday at 10am | 0.41 | 0.44 | 0¢ | Dead end |
| US CPI above 3% year on year | 0.27 | 0.22 | 2¢ | Holds |
| Gold settles higher this month | 0.73 | 0.66 | 0¢ | Dead end |
| Nasdaq-100 falls 2% or more this week | 0.18 | 0.24 | 4¢ | Holds |
Illustrative rows. Real research results are not published.
From question to system
Four steps, in this order.
Record
Capture prices and order books from the venues we study, with timestamps we can trust.
Match
Pair the same event across venues, rule by rule, so two prices really compare.
Test
Replay history with fees, latency and settlement, then test on data the idea never saw.
Ship
Turn what survives into systems and products, and keep measuring them live.
Who we work with
If one of these is you, we would like to hear from you.
Exchanges and venues
Market structure, pricing and liquidity research, and integrations.
Trading firms
Joint research on event pricing and execution.
Data providers
Feeds, history and reference data we can test against.
Researchers and engineers
People who like being proven wrong by data. We are hiring.
Start an enquiry
Every message is read by the research team, not a sales inbox.
paul@cogitate.ai- We read it. A researcher reads every enquiry.
- We reply within two working days. With questions, or a time to talk.
- We scope it together. Research, data, integration or a role: we agree what to test first.